The 2024 presidential election will be unlike any other, political strategists and pollsters say.
Donald Trump’s indictments and ballot access, President Biden’s age and absence in New Hampshire, the economy, third party candidates and dissatisfaction with both parties could lead to “unexpected” results come November.
“Expect the unexpected. Consider all of the old rules and histories and throw them out the window,” Democratic pollster John Zogby told The Post.
The 2024 primary season will officially begin Jan. 15 with the GOP’s Iowa caucuses. Trump seems to have a massive lead over his competition in the Hawkeye state and nationally, according to polls, and is also edging out Biden in key swing states by a significant margin.
But Trump’s lead could change depending on how well he does in the early states, and if any other candidate is able to get within striking distance of the former president, according to strategists and pollsters.
“Trump does well because he’s not in charge right now, and by any measure Americans are just unhappy, fed up, in a sour mood,” Zogby said, noting that consumer confidence is rising but has yet to translate to a “period of good feelings” under Biden.
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has gotten the closest to Trump in the polls, coming within single digits in New Hampshire. But the blowback she received after failing to mention slavery as the cause of the Civil War could show just how volatile the race is.
“We’ll see if that’s a momentary blip… or if it will be a moment that defines the campaign,” Henry Olsen, a veteran political analyst and senior fellow with the Ethics and Public Policy Center, told The Post.
The CNN debate between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley five days before the Iowa election could also “go a long way in determining” who the first-in-the-nation voters swing to, he added.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon predicted that Haley still “has a chance to upend Trump.”
“It would be more difficult for the president to beat Haley than it would be for him to beat Trump,” he added.
In the general election, polls show 20-25% of voters say they wouldn’t want to vote for Biden or Trump, and those voters “will be the ones to decide the election,” Olsen said.
The dissatisfaction with both parties could also lead to a major voter share going for third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Kennedy in particular has been polling as high as 26% in support and has caught the attention of both Republicans and Democrats.
The schedule of Trump’s court cases and whether he’s removed from more state ballots could also throw a wrench into his ability to beat Biden.
“What happens if Trump gets a mistrial?” Olsen said. “What happens if that happens first?”
Both Trump and Biden, who are 77 and 81 respectively, have to deal with possible health issues. Polls show voters are more concerned with Biden’s health than the former president’s, but either one could be open to possible health scares, Olsen said.
“You never know what a 77-year-old or an 81-year-old man’s body contains underneath.”
Biden, who seems likely to become the Democratic nominee, may also not be a shoe-in due to his competition.
He first has to first deal with New Hampshire, where a tiff between the DNC and the state over the primary schedule led to him not being on the ballot.
Democratic rival Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) is campaigning heavily in the first-in-the-nation primary state in a bid to get traction over the incumbent, but a write-in campaign is underway to save Biden from embarrassment on Jan. 23.
“There’s a potential that an unknown like Dean Phillips could embarrass Joe Biden, much like Eugene McCarthy embarrassed LBJ in 1968,” Zogby said. (Lyndon B. Johnson, who was an incumbent at the time, failed to register for the New Hampshire ballot)
Olsen highlighted that for Biden, it will be about the margin of victory.
“How many people will simply vote for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson to cast a protest vote? Biden’s not going to lose the primary… but what happens if Biden only gets 60% in the Michigan primary?”
The economy will be a huge factor for Biden getting reelected, Bannon told The Post.
“Economists are talking about the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. If the soft landing does in fact play out, I think that will be a major boost for the Biden election campaign.”
