Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Super Bowl favorite, Buffalo Bills. Be sure to check out our Tampa Bay Buccaneers preview.
Buffalo Bills (+600 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 11-6, 1st in AFC East
Our final team preview of the 2022 season looks at the Super Bowl favorites, the Buffalo Bills.
Their 2021 season ended in despair, anger, and sadness like few we have seen in NFL history. The Bills are tasked with picking up the pieces after scoring a touchdown with 13 seconds left in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, which they thought would put them one win away from a Super Bowl berth. But then, of course, Kansas City tied it at the gun and won in overtime, 42-36.
Rebounding from such a disappointment may be tough, but the Bills’ front office has given the team the jolt it needed. The Von Miller and Roger Saffold III pickups are a massive boon in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Bills need to win at the point of attack, and these pickups should help.
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Another big hole they hope to have filled is at cornerback with rookie first-round pick Kaiir Elam. Elam has impressed in his preseason opportunities and should see plenty of playing time, especially with Tre’Davious White attempting to avoid the PUP list after returning from a torn ACL and Jordan Poyer nursing an elbow injury.
The early injuries in the secondary are concerning. But as -230 to favorites to win the AFC East, the Bills hope to rout the division and get their team healthy by the playoffs to make good on their favorite status to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Bills offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Signed: EDGE Von Miller, G Rodger Saffold III, WR Jamison Crowder, DL DaQuan Jones, DT Tim Settle, RB Duke Johnson, TE OJ Howard, DE Shaq Lawson
- Drafted: CB Kaiir Elam (No. 23), RB James Cook (No. 63), LB Terrel Bernard (No. 89), WR Khalil Shakir (No. 148)
- Departures: Star Lotulelei, Cole Beasley, Mitchell Trubisky, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerry Hughes, Levi Wallace, Matt Araiza (drafted and cut)
Bills 2022 Schedule
Week 1: at Los Angeles Rams (Thur. Season Opener)
Week 2: vs. Tennessee Titans (Mon.)
Week 3: at Miami Dolphins
Week 4: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 5: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 6: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 9: at New York Jets
Week 10: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 11: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 12: at Detroit Lions (Thur.)
Week 13: at New England Patriots (Thur.)
Week 14: vs. New York Jets
Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 16: at Chicago Bears (Sat.)
Week 17: at Cincinnati Bengals (Mon.)
Week 18: vs. New England Patriots
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NFL betting lines: Bills win total
O/U 11.5 wins (Caesars)
The Bills’ season starts Sept. 8 with what should have been last season’s Super Bowl matchup against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.
Buffalo’s schedule is not the easiest by any means, despite its relatively weak division. The Action Network’s Sean Koerner strength of schedule rankings gives the Bills the 10th-hardest in the NFL.
Squaring off against the Rams, Ravens, and Chiefs before their Week 7 bye is a tough task. Their total win projection is set at 11.5, so an Over bet would have to result in a 12-5 record or better.
The optimistic perspective for Buffalo is that it ranked second in Total DVOA and first in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders. Furthermore, the Bills project that they were slightly unlucky in terms in terms of the outcomes of games.
The Bills led the NFL in Pythagorean wins coming in at 13.3. This calculation is advanced and for math majors, but the salient point is that 11 of 16 Super Bowls from 1988 through 2004 were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual wins.
This highly advanced calculation is one of the premier stats used to predict a Super Bowl winner; the Bills are the rightful favorites this year.
However, their 11.5-game win projection is going to be decided on a few coin-flip games. They could easily have 11 wins in Week 18 and choose to rest starters against the Patriots, resulting in an Under. Pass on their current win total and bet them to win a terrible division at a slightly worse price.
Bills O/U 11.5 wins: The pick
No bet: 11.5 total wins Over/Under (-140/+118) (Caesars)
Buffalo Bills win the AFC East -225 (Caesars)
Expert best bets, futures, and props
Most regular season team defensive interceptions: Bills +700 (FanDuel)
The interceptions market is an odd one to target, but the Bills are the favorites to lead the NFL in that statistic in 2022. The influx of talent along the defensive line, along with playing against some turnover-happy quarterbacks, should make this a good season-long bet.
The Bills face Matthew Stafford in Week 1 (led the league in interceptions in 2021), Zach Wilson twice (favorite to lead the NFL interceptions this season), Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, and Jacoby Brissett in his last game for the Browns.
Back the Bills’ defense throughout this season, as its NO. 1 DVOA ranking, along with other upgrades, should make this one of the more dangerous groups in the NFL.
