With recent polls showing him with momentum in the tight race for governor, Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is aggressively targeting New York City voters fed up with crime in his bid to pull off a stunning upset over Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday.
The Long Island congressman said his early-bird April 2021 entry into the race has paid off — giving him an opportunity for the last 18 months to stump across the five boroughs, spreading his crime-fighting message, and make inroads on his strategic map with Democrats as well as Republicans and independents.
“We’ve been all over the city,” Zeldin, 42, told The Post between campaign stops on Sunday. “We’ve had extensive engagement with the Asian, Latino and Orthodox Jewish communities.”
A Republican needs to break a minimum of 30% of the vote in the Big Apple to have a shot at winning statewide, Zeldin said, noting that some polls have him pulling 35% or more, while making significant inroads among Latino voters.
“If we get 35% or more of the vote in New York City, we win,” he said.
“We just have to get our voters to the polls by 9 p.m. Tuesday. If we do, I can’t wait to get to work on Wednesday.”
GOP operatives predict Zeldin could give Hochul a run for her money in areas with big Orthodox Jewish and Asian American populations — such as southern Brooklyn, large swaths of central and northeast Queens and the northern parts of the Bronx — as well as Inwood and Washington Heights in northern Manhattan, home to large Hispanic communities.
Zeldin is also expected to carry more conservative Staten Island over Hochul by a double-digit margin.
“I think 62 to 65% of the vote for Zeldin on Staten Island is a realistic target, with the turnout rate being higher than most of the other boroughs,” said borough Councilman Joe Borelli, a Republican.
Zeldin will romp in Staten Island’s more conservative south shore, from Great Kills to Tottenville, as well as carry the east shore and mid-island neighborhoods of Rosebank, Midland Beach, South Beach, Grant City, Dongan Hills, Todt Hill, New Springville, Willowbrook and Travis, GOP sources said.
The island’s population of 500,000 includes lots of police officers and other uniformed officers as well as Wall Street employees or other Manhattan commuters disgusted over crime. Support for cops and law and order — and opposition to New York state’s cashless bail law — among voters there makes Richmond County fertile ground for Zeldin.
“The crime message has taken hold. People want to feel safe on the subway and in the streets,” Zeldin said. “People are not happy with the cashless bail law and other pro-criminal laws supported by Kathy Hochul and Democrats in Albany.”
While crime has drawn most of the attention, Zeldin said Sunday that education has emerged as an important issue in the city: Asian American parents are ticked off at attempts to end merit-based elite high schools, while the Orthodox Jewish community is upset at a state crackdown on yeshivas and some families, many of them minorities, are clamoring for more charter schools that Hochul and the Democrat-run state Legislature won’t allow to expand.
Zeldin said he supports merit-based middle schools and high schools, lifting the state cap on charter schools in New York City and defending religious-based education from Albany interference over what is taught.
He also predicted he will “perform much better with Latino voters” than the political class expects.
The now-infamous case of bodega clerk Jose Alba, who was charged with murder for fatally stabbing an assailant in self-defense, was a turning point with many Latino voters in the city, Zeldin said. The charges were later dropped by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office following an outcry — but the damage was done.
“Alvin Bragg charged Jose Alba with murder for defending himself! The Dominican community has engaged our campaign with passion and purpose,” said Zeldin, who was recently endorsed by a group of Latino grocery owners and said he would oust Bragg as DA.
Zeldin could match or even do better in other city neighborhoods that went red in the mayor’s race last year — backing Republican Curtis Sliwa over Democratic Mayor Eric Adams.
The stunning 30 percentage-point victory of GOP Councilwoman Inna Vernikov in the one-time Democratic-leaning district in southern Brooklyn shows it is prime turf where Zeldin could best Hochul, sources said.
Many of the predominantly Jewish voters in neighborhoods including Brighton Beach, Manhattan Beach, Bergen Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Gerritsen Beach and Mill Basin fled Russia, Ukraine and other Soviet-sphere countries a generation ago and detest communism and socialism, though a large chunk are registered Democrats.
The Ukrainian-born Vernikov — whose aide Izzy Weiss is helping the Zeldin campaign with get-out-the-vote efforts — said she foresees the gubernatorial hopeful to get a big slice of the votes in her district.
“I expect Congressman Zeldin to get at least 75% of the vote here, as everyone is united and excited to elect him,” she said. “This is Zeldin turf and we can’t wait to welcome Lee as our next governor!”
Zeldin also is counting on a big vote from conservative ultra-Orthodox Jewish voters in Williamsburg, Borough Park and Midwood and Asian voters in Bensonhurst, as well as backing from pro-cop residents in Dyker Heights.
The Zeldin camp is expected to win districts in more than a dozen Queens neighborhood cutting across the borough to the Nassau County border, including Maspeth, Glendale, Woodhaven, Middle Village, Ozone Park, Howard Beach, Breezy Point, Rego Park, Kew Gardens Hills, Northern Flushing, Whitestone, College Point, Douglaston and Little Neck.
“I believe Zeldin is going to perform well throughout District 32, especially in areas that have not, historically, voted Republican such as Woodhaven and Ozone Park,” said GOP Councilwoman Joann Ariola, who represents eastern Queens along the Rockaway peninsula.
“The uptick in crime on our streets and subways as well as gun violence that has been plaguing our city have now become more prevalent in these otherwise quiet low-crime areas, causing voters to seek change,” she said.
Councilman Robert Holden, a Democrat who supports Zeldin, said the Republican will carry his 30th District, which includes Glendale, Maspeth, Middle Village, Ridgewood, Woodhaven and Woodside, “by a good margin.”
“We’ve had crime here that we haven’t seen in decades,” said Holden, who noted that Zeldin has visited communities in his district four times, including after a gas station was robbed.
Last year, Republican Councilwoman Vicki Paladino won a long-Democrat-held seat in an upset in District 19 in northeast Queens, which includes Whitestone, College Point, Bayside, Little Neck, Douglaston and parts of North Flushing. More than a third of the voters in the district are Asian Americans.
Paladino’s chief of staff, Nicole Kiprilov, said Zeldin is getting a “great reception” in northeast Queens, including from Latino voters, adding, “There’s momentum from last year’s election. The winning platform is common sense.”
Meanwhile, in the Bronx, county GOP chairman Anthony Rendino said Zeldin will make some inroads in the heavily Latino borough because voters are “unhappy with the Democrats,” particularly over surging crime.
“We’re making huge inroads in the Latino community,” said Rendino, who expects Zeldin to do well in City Island, Soundview, Hunts Point, Throgs Neck, Morris Park, Parkchester, Riverdale and Woodlawn.
Zeldin said he has gotten “massive turnouts” at his events, while Hochul on Friday generated a puny turnout at one in Chinatown.
The incumbent also had to bring in President Biden as well as other top Democrats, like former President Bill Clinton, over the weekend to generate excitement for her campaign.
