It’s been said that the Virginia gubernatorial race has been tightening in these final days, and it indeed has. In a Monmouth Poll released on Wednesday, the race is now tied between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin, with each candidate earning 46 percent support from registered voters. McAuliffe was up by 5 points in August and September. And the significant shifts don’t stop there.

One model shows McAuliffe going from a 7-point lead to a 3-point lead. Another takes the race from giving McAuliffe a 2-3 point lead to giving Youngkin a 3-point lead. As Brandon Jarvis with Virginia Scope underscores, these results mark the “first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle.”