Forecasters have raised their outlooks for a recession and boosted their inflation outlook as the Federal Reserve faces the quandary of fast-rising prices and greater uncertainty from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

The probability of recession in the U.S. was raised to 33% in the next 12 months, up 10 percentage points from the Feb. 1 survey. The chance of a recession in Europe stands at 50%.

Respondents debated whether the recent surge in commodity prices would prompt the Fed to hike rates faster because it adds to inflation or raise rates less because they reduce growth.

The 33 respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and economists, forecast the Fed will hike rates an average of 4.7 times this year, bringing the funds rate to end the year at 1.4% and to 2% by the end of 2023. Nearly half of the respondents see the central bank hiking 5 to 7 times this year.