House Incumbents on Track for Highest Number of Primary Losses in Decades

he 2022 midterms have seen an unusually high number of incumbents lose their primaries, with several more primaries still left to go that could potentially raise the final number to a 30-year high.

Axios reports that thus far, 11 House incumbents – seven Republicans and four Democrats – have lost their primaries. The high number of primary losses is due to a number of factors, including the effects of redistricting after the 2020 census, as well as a major political realignment within both parties away from so-called moderates and in favor of more hardline, grassroots candidates.

Five of the ousted incumbents were defeated by fellow incumbents due to their districts being combined, as a result of their states losing one seat following the census. Three of the four Democrats – Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Marie Newman (D-Ill.), and Andy Levin (D-Mich.) – lost to their colleagues Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), Sean Casten (D-Ill.), and Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), respectively. The fourth was Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), one of the most moderate Democrats in the House, who lost to far-left challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner despite receiving an endorsement from Joe Biden, which marked the 46th president’s first primary endorsement in 2022.

On the Republican side, the primary cause of incumbent losses has been the powerful endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who remains by far the most popular figure in the Republican Party. In both of the only two redistricting races involving Republican incumbents, the Trump-backed candidates, Reps. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.) and Mary Miller (R-Ill.), defeated their colleagues David McKinley (R-W.V.) and Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), respectively.