Democrats have been getting warning signs for quite a while now that the GOP momentum in congressional districts along the southern border in Texas is quite real.

It is a warning that appears to be falling on deaf ears.

On June 14, there will be a special election held to fill the seat of Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX), who resigned his seat to become a lobbyist. Texas’ 34th Congressional District could be the first one to flip and go to Republicans.

The Texas 34th Congressional District sits in the Rio Grande Valley, and has seen a steady decline in Democrat performance. When Vela was first elected in 2012, he won with 62% of the vote. In 2020, Biden barely carried the district, with just 51%.

It’s a place Republicans would do well to keep their eye on as it has the potential to turn pretty red in the fall. That is thanks in part to Republican Hispanic candidates.

Mayra Flores is the GOP candidate running to fill the seat. If she wins, she will be the first Republican in decades to hold that seat.