Two weeks after we learned that in Q1, US GDP had “shockingly” contracted, just one pillar was left holding up the “strong” US economy, the same economy that the Fed’s record tightening cycle is hoping to push into recession: the labor market.

However, that too has now turned, and one week after a big ADP private payrolls miss, after the ISM manufacturing employment index printed just shy of contraction where the ISM Services employment index already is, and after the first positive print in the Challenger job cuts index since Jan 2021, it now appears that even though the official payrolls report continues to paint a somewhat rosy picture, the labor market has also officially peaked.

Moments ago the BLS reported that in the week ending April 7, initial claims jumped 203,000, up from the upward revised 202,000 print a week earlier, and 11K more than the 192K consensus forecast, and the highest print since February 11, a troubling confirmation that the best days for the US jobs market are now behind us.