Powell's Pivot to "Pain" but No Gain: Triggering the Coming Recession

On Friday August 26th, the Fed chair finally mustered the courage to say that he is going to do the job he has been hired to do: the Fed will not “pivot” to cut interest rates until inflation slows meaningfully and persistently—even if the stock, bond, and housing bear markets become much worse and the economy goes into recession.

Below we provide key quotes from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, along with our honest translations:

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.

Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

“Overarching focus” means that stock prices, housing prices, employment, and economic growth are minor concerns for the Fed compared to their goal of trying to bring inflation down from the recent +8.5 percent level to their arbitrary +2 percent level (which cuts the dollar’s value by 50 percent in thirty-four years). The dangers of inflation that Powell highlights are very real.