Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, the head of the United States’s 18 spy agencies, said during a House Intelligence Committee hearing Tuesday that the pushback from Ukraine’s armed forces, the flaws within the Russian military, the largely unified, U.S.-led NATO response, the provision of lethal aid from Europe, Western efforts to undermine Putin’s ability to mitigate stiff international sanctions, and the huge number of international companies pulling out of Russia likely combined to take the Russian leader somewhat off guard.

“Nevertheless, our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO, if it doesn’t reach a diplomatic negotiation,” Haines said. “We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this is a war he can afford to lose. But what he might be willing to accept as a victory might change over time given the significant costs he is incurring.”