First, the important good news: the Ukraine grain deal is back on after Russia backed off. As our grains maven Michael Magdovitz comments, the Kremlin phone was probably ringing off the hook… and not from the West, but from hungry Russian allies. Now to the bad news.

The party is ending…

…and all those expecting the Fed to shift in a dovish direction yesterday are being shown up as a bunch of pivots.

The Fed raised 75bp to 4.00% yesterday, as expected. There was an initial market attempt to rally at language suggesting they were aware policy acts with a lag, which sounded pivot-y.

Then Powell spoke, and crushed those hopes. True, he flagged the pace of rate hikes might slow from its breakneck pace: but he made it abundantly clear smaller rate hikes would continue for longer than many expected.

Moreover, when a journalist pointed out to him that stocks were rising after his latest move, he deliberately underlined that if the FOMC had known in September what it knows now, it would have plotted its dots higher for where Fed Funds will peak. That means a higher terminal rate ahead –the market’s assumption is now 5.10% vs. 4.85% recently– and a deliberate attempt to jawbone markets lower, not higher.