Some scientists have a sneaking suspicion that the new variant from South Africa may not be as mild as it seems based on the earliest cases. It might produce mild symptoms in younger people who have a degree of immunity due to vaccination or a previous infection, but it’s anyone’s guess what it’ll do to those who are less protected due to age, poor health, or lack of prior immunity.

That is, Omicron may look mild because cases so far are concentrated in the immune population. But that doesn’t mean it’s inherently mild. And if it isn’t, that could mean bad things for the non-immune population.

It’s totally possible that the variant really has lost some degree of virulence due to its mutations. We’re now a month removed from the earliest recorded cases in Africa and, as of yesterday, a grand total of zero people with confirmed Omicron infections have died according to the WHO.

The usual caveats apply — it’s still early, most of the people infected so far are younger and healthier, etc. But the more time passes without a huge surge of hospitalizations in South Africa and the UK, the stronger the evidence becomes that the variant is inherently weaker than its predecessors.